Sunday, January 9, 2011

2011 Predictions from Around the Web - Online Video, Social Media, Technology and More

As the first week of 2011 comes to a close, many trends have already emerged. Each January kicks off with a spotlight on the latest gadgets and technology for consumers with the 2011 International CES in Las Vegas. This year the show will be known as the year of the tablets, 3D TVs, connected devices and mobile, and again without actually being at the show, Apple's news that iPhone will finally be coming to Verizon overshadowed much of the news coming from Las Vegas.

Each year also brings out the many predictions of how online video, social media and technology will shape the consumer and business markets and set the stage for the future. Online video has seen explosive growth over the last few years and continues to reach record levels with U.S. video views surpassing 30 billion in November 2010. Many predict that 2011 will be a breakthrough year for video advertising, with mobile devices viewing the majority of video ads. Advertising is also expected grow within social media with video properties emerging as the top ad networks. A number of voices in the online video space have already gone on record with their 2011 predictions. For a second year in a row, VidCompare assembled a number thought leaders from the OVP space to offer their forecast of the year ahead, consisting of: BrightcoveMagnify.netKalturaFliqzRealGravityMarcellus.TVWistia and vzaar.

Jeff Whatcott predicts more device fragmentation, increase in social viewing and sharing and continued consolidation of players in the space. Steve Rosenbaum says 2011 is the year we Connect, that Content = Commerce, and that we Curate. Ron Yekutiel says the demand for open-source solutions will be driven by user demand, further commoditization and a shift to the application layer, and more cloud solutions. Benjamin Wayne thinks Amazon will get into the device business, Hulu and Google will distribute feature films and the Asia will surpass the U.S. for online video consumption and monetization. Luke McDonough says video advertising will heat up, the industry will respond to connected TVs but it will quickly become irrelevant because of mobile and geo-location. Preetam Mukherjee predicts the Eastward boom to tap markets in Asia-Pacific, Africa and the Middle East, along with freemium video models and CDN wars. Christopher Savage sees many more sites defaulting to HTML5 first with Flash back up, a new swatch of SMBs embracing video and more vide production companies to service that market and the enterprise. Finally, Ian Snead sees more demand for security of online video, more consolidation between CDN vendors and full service OVPs and, improved content delivery methods.

In a recent VideoNuze TDG webinar, Colin Dixon and Will Richmond identified 6 key trends in online and mobile video for 2011, that included Google emerging as a key Hollywood partner, Netflix strains under incredible growth, cord-cutting gains, no change in net neutrality enforcement, mobile video has breakout year, and TV Everywhere struggles.

Jim O'Neil of Fierce Online Video News predicts that DVDs will bite the dust, Netflix will conquer the world and get gobbled up by Google, Microsoft or Apple, more consolidation within the OVP space, cord cutting will be a hot topic and continue evolve, and Comcast will say 'aloha' to Hulu.

Nalts predicts that WebTV will be a bloodbath, video platforms will continue to get commoditized, the YouTube community will stay alive, video search will suck less, video greetings will get more awkward,   video destinations will rival YouTube, we will need curation, online video will get more social, we'll pay more for broadband, and Google will go beyond YouTube. usinesses will continue to invest in social media for marketing and customer interaction. Curation tools will become the primary way people will use social media. Facebook will evolve as a E-Commerce platfor,

Metcafe CEO Erik Hachenburg offered his predictions on the industry in this article: MediaPost Publications 2011: The Future of Consolidation In The Online Video Industry, and says that since YouTube reigns as the the top video ad network and ad networks will need to consolidate to compete. But that's just the first step he says, and the next phase will focus on "content verticalization" so expect to see more consolidation among video companies, especially among video destination sites.

Hachenburg also recorded this video to share his 2011 predictions for online video advertising:
"With online advertising revenues at record highs and all eyes on online video as the key growth driver for the sector throughout 2011, the future looks bright as we prepare for the New Year. So what’s in store? Here are Metacafe CEO Erick Hachenburg's top-five predictions for online video advertising in 2011."

Among his 5 predictions, Hachenburg says that Hulu will abandon its IPO ad be bought by Comcast instead, which Ryan Lawler thinks is just one person's crazy prediction, but interesting nonetheless.

Justin Foster wrote an excellent post on The Video Commerce Consortium Blog Archive » Top Ten Video Commerce Predictions for 2011, and he predicts the following:
"2011 is going to be the year of mobile video commerce, with social playing an important role.  Automated video optimization emerges as a key driver of video commerce, and video email will make meaningful strides forward, breathing new life into a critical channel for online retailers and brands that sell direct.  The industry struggles to find a winning video format, restraining growth from explosive levels, but video reach increases as more marketers adopt Promoted Videos.  Automated video continues to improve in quality, but remains confined to a small niche of overall e-commerce video.  We’ll see one, maybe two, meaningful commertainment initiatives emerge, probably from a large lifestyle retailer that’s willing to make a bet.  More retailers will grow their in-house video studios, and SEO remains a key component of an overall video commerce strategy."
For over the last month, I've been collecting 2011 predictions from around the web, and many of them can be found in this very well curated list from Search Engine Land: The Big List: 168 Marketing Trends, Predictions & Resolutions For 2011 that breaks it down by numerous categories – Industry, Paid Search, SEO, Local/Mobile, Email, Social Media, B2B, General Online Marketing, Web Design & Development/E-Commerce, Affiliate Marketing and Miscellaneous –  or this massive list: What are experts predicting for 2011? | Samuel Parent's Blog that segments even more predictions by theme – Advertising, Ad Spend, B2B, Business, Consumers, Design, Economy, Email, Marketing, Mobile, Newspapers, Social Media, Radio, Tablets, Television and Video.

I've taken the same approach with my list below and include several videos and slideshows.

Online Video, Online Video Advertising and Marketing
Consumer Trends, Finance and Markets
Digital Media, TV and Entertainment
Social Media
Tech Industry

JWT: 100 Things to Watch in 2011  
View more presentations from JWTIntelligence.
  • 100 things to watch in 2011 | JWT Intelligence - by Ann Mack - New York - Beer Sommeliers, F-Commerce, Objectifying Objects … just a few items from our list of 100 Things to Watch in 2011. It’s a wide-ranging compilation that in part reflects broader shifts we’ve been tracking over the past few years, notably the evolution of the mobile phone into an “everything hub,” a trend we’ll see play out in myriad ways next year. Other items reflect counter-trends—for instance, to balance out our growing immersion in the digital world, people will increasingly embrace face-to-face gatherings and digital downtime. Many of our Things to Watch are technology-centric, with smart infrastructure ramping up, the rise of tablets for tots and some truly futuristic-seeming developments (3D printing, virtual mirrors, electronic profiling). Web-wise, Things to Watch will include a growth in Facebook commerce, apps beyond mobile and more social browsers. The people on the list—from pop culture, sports, architecture, fashion and other sectors—have the potential to drive or shape trends in the near future. Check out our list, along with a little bit about what makes each item worth watching, below. (Or to download the presentation with fully functioning links, click here.)
  • Nick Morgan, Public Words: The Year Ahead: Fearless Predictions for Communications in 2011
  • Ten things Web users should fear in 2011 - The Red Tape Chronicles -
That's all for now, we'll see how things shake out as the year progresses. But there's one thing we know for sure and that is, this year we're turning it up to 11, and it will be louder than last year!